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 The novels of The 7.9
Scenario describe what happens when -- not if --
a giant 7.9 magnitude earthquake strikes on the New Madrid Fault,
just like it did 193 years ago. These stories are based on a
scenario calculation: a scientific investigation into what would
result from an imagined happening.
I am serializing my non-fiction
book entitled The 7.9 Scenario, Analysis and Writing
on this website to describe the background behind the novels.
If you already have the prepub key, Click
Here to go read the latest uploads. Otherwise, you can go purchase a key.
The happening used in the calculation
is a repeat of the events of December 16, 1811 when a magnitude
7.9 earthquake struck on the southern extension of the New Madrid
Seismic Zone with an epicenter at 89.85 degrees west, 36.00 degrees
north, a point where I-55 now crosses the Arkansas-Missouri border.
What if the same earthquake struck today?
In 1811 fewer than a million
citizens of the United States lived in or explored the 300,000-square-mile
damage zone (the orange to brown zones on the map on the front
of the book). Today there are thirty-two million souls at risk,
and the value of civilization's structures at risk is trillions
of dollars. Twenty percent of the nation's transported goods
travel across the affected region. The entire economy of the
United States is at risk along with the nearly ten million people
who would be left homeless if such an event happened today.
But some say the chances are
too small to be of concern. They argue it is too costly to prepare.
The US Geological Survey says the chance is one in ten in the
next fifty years. Is that small enough? When you consider what
is at risk, our country's future, is it still small enough to
ignore? How costly must it be to not ignore?
My novels describe to the public
what might happen to our country from the 7.9 scenario in story
form. The characters are fiction, but the events may become reality.
I believe it is useful for everyone to understand how an earthquake
happens and what it can do. Those with the knowledge survive;
those who bury their heads in the sand will suffer their consequences.
Hopefully their sufferings will not spill over on those who do
prepare.
This book is not fiction. It
is a summary of the analysis that I did as background for what
became the series of novels. The 7.9 Scenario, Analysis
& Writing is written in retrospect to fulfill requests
made for an explanation of the scenario. The book documents what
I have done and why.
I will publish the chapters of
this book as I finish them in serial form on this website for
those who pre-purchase this book. When the hardcopy is ready,
those who bought the book will receive a signed, numbered first
edition. I expect to take until the end of 2005 to complete this
project.
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